The thought of asking someone to get on the phone or take a survey so I can validate my idea? Makes my kidneys shiver in fear.

Why? Because I don’t really like human beings and if the success of my business depended on doing that, I’d be on the streets.

So I use something easier (and much more effective) called The Fly or Flop framework.

It works like a bloody charm (and requires no surveys or interviews because bleugh).

Here's why:

Humans don’t know what they want, they show what they want. And if humans don’t know what they want, they can’t tell you what they want, no matter how nice you are on the phone, or how pretty your survey is.

I’ll say it again.

Humans don’t know what they want, they show what they want.

The real question is… how do you find out what people want, if you can’t just ask them superficial survey questions?

(Aren’t you lucky that I’m about to drop THAT bomb on you?)

At its core, it comes down to watching them. Not like a creeper. Don’t do that. That’s illegal in most countries.

Instead, you can use the three methods of validation that this framework is built on – they’re way more effective than peeping through your ideal clients’ blinds (trust me on that one).

These methods are:

• Market Scan (that shows the need for your solution)
• Inherent Merit (that assesses the idea on its inherent merit and your ability to deliver it)
• Validation Through Outreach (that's about using outreach to figure out if people care enough to commit)

 

Before we begin…

Make sure to get your copy of The Fly Or Flop Spreadsheet, a nifty tool that allows you to fill in your results & it will automatically calculate a score that determines whether your idea will fly or flop.

As we go through each step of the Framework you’ll be using this spreadsheet for scoring your ideas – these ideas could be for a whole new business, or a new product or program, or a new service, or even just a new opt-in. It really does work for everything.

Ok, let’s get stuck in.

1. Conduct a market scan

This is not about stalking, I promise. Ok, maybe it is a little bit.

This is all about discovering what’s working.

What’s selling?

What people are paying money for.

It’s about looking at how well your idea is already represented on the industry landscape.

Here we’re looking for the solution that your idea provides. Just that. Don't niche it down, don't dilute it, don’t involve the demographics at this stage. Keep it simple.

Sneaky trick #1 : Let Google guide the way

Put your idea into a “how to” format and Google it. For example, how to write persuasive copy, how to shoot beautiful videos, how to make your own Nutella (ok, maybe not that last one).

When you plug in your search you should see a series of sponsored posts. You might need to make sure your ad blocker is switched off or these may not show up.

If there are sponsored posts it’s an indication that this is something that people are willing to spend money on because it’s something that people are searching for.

After running your search, take the results to your Fly or Flop spreadsheet.

If there are 5 or more sponsored posts you get 4 points. If there are 1-4 sponsored posts you get 2 points. If there are no sponsored posts you get 0 points.

Sneaky trick #2 : Find the buzz with BuzzSumo

BuzzSumo is a site which helps you track down top industry content. Plug in your “how to” idea once again, then take a look at the results.

You want at least three results with more than 10,000 shares, because this tells you that this kind of content is so interesting to people that they’re taking the time to share it.

3 posts with 10,000+ shares earn you 4 points in theFly or Flop spreadsheet., 1 or 2 posts with 10,000+ shares earn you 2 points, no posts with 10,000+ shares earn you 0 points.

Sneaky trick #3 : What does YouTube have to say?                         

Search your “how to” idea through YouTube, this time looking for three results with 25,000+ views. The reason you’re taking this to different platforms is that it shows you how eager people are to find information on this topic.

Same rules apply, if you find 3 videos with 25,000+ views you get 4 points in the Fly or Flop spreadsheet., 1 or 2 videos with 25,000 views earn 2 points, no posts with 25,000+ views means 0 points.

Sneaky trick #4 : Follow the money

Look at places like Udemy, Creative Live, Skillshare. Each of these platforms has tons of online courses on every topic imaginable and each boasts millions of students.

Search your topic and look for five results with 5,000+ students. All 5 results earn 4 points, 1-4 results earn 2 points, no results earn 0 points.   

Make sure to get your copy of The Fly Or Flop Spreadsheet, a nifty tool that allows you to fill in your results & it will automatically calculate a score that determines whether your idea will fly or flop.

           

2. What is the inherent merit?

People seem to think that whether an idea will sell or not is entirely dependent on the market, but they’re wrong (as they so often are).

When we assess ideas, why do we only look externally?

Why do we only look at whether the market wants it or not?

That's my biggest problem with most survey questions – you're asking them what they want but you haven't really judged your idea on its inherent merit.

It’s not all about demand – a big part of validation is looking at yourself as the creator and what you offer. You may not be the right person to deliver the solution no matter how great thje solution is.

Sneaky trick #5 : What are the reasons to believe?

When you’re selling an idea to people, you need to give them some sort of evidence that shows why they can trust that you are the best person to deliver on this promise.

Your reasons to believe could be the fact that you’ve lived through the thing you’re selling, or that you’ve worked with a certain number of clients, or you’ve been doing it a certain number of years or you’ve got all these qualifications… These are all the things that you can later weave into your persuasive marketing copy… and the reason I don’t believe in market saturation.

We all come with a different story in a different context; there is no real competition.

I want you to come up with at least 5 reasons that people should believe that you can back up the claim you make with your idea. If you come up with 5, you get 4 points, if you come up with fewer than 5 you get 2 points, if you can’t think of anything, you get 0 points in the Fly or Flop spreadsheet.

Sneaky trick #6 : What differentiates YOU?                        

Do you have at least three super strong points of differentiation that set you apart from the competition? This could be that you have 20 years of experience in your field, or a signature framework, or a prestigious certification…

If you can think of at least 3, you get 4 points, if you can think of 1 or 2, you get 2 points, if you haven’t got any, it’s 0 points. Go fill out your Fly or Flop spreadsheet based on this.

Sneaky trick #7 : Find the points of parity

Your points of parity are things that everyone in your industry are doing anyway. They’re nothing special; they’re the things that are expected.

For example, if you are a courier company and your claim to fame is that you provide fast and secure service, that's a point of parity. You are a freaking courier company, it’s your job to provide fast, secure delivery.

Make absolutely sure that your points of parity are aligned with others in your industry. If everyone in your industry is offering a 60-day money back guarantee, then make sure you do the same. If the industry norm is to get a 15-minute free consultation, offer that. It’s the bare minimum the market will expect from you.

Sneaky trick #8 : Draft your backstory                                      

Do you have a backstory that aligns with your offer?

Maybe you overcame that issue on your own, or maybe you helped someone else overcome that issue, or maybe it's the kind of expertise that you’ve developed after years and years of working in a certain niche.

For example, when I launched Mass Persuasion Method, a program that teaches people how to write super-persuasive copy, my backstory was about how I developed the system. I talk about how it used to be called the client persuasion method as I used to use it in consulting, but later, as I started working with online businesses I reframed the framework.

This not a make or break element but it lends a certain credibility to your idea.

Make sure to get your copy of The Fly Or Flop Spreadsheet, a nifty tool that allows you to fill in your results & it will automatically calculate a score that determines whether your idea will fly or flop.

           

 3. Conduct validation through outreach

This is the most labor intensive part of the framework, it might require a little bit more elbow grease… but it will also give you irrefutable proof that your idea will sell.

Sneaky trick #9 : Scout your network

Do you know at least ten people who would be desperate to buy this solution if it existed today?

These could be people you know on Facebook, you might know them in real life, you might work together, you might know them because they're your friends or your relatives, or because you’ve seen them hanging around in different groups.                     

All it takes is a little bit of observation. Just hang out in the right communities. See what kind of conversations people are having. Maybe even ask probing questions to see how people respond.

And by the way, when I say desperate to buy, that's important.

It should not be like, “Yeah I would be interested. Yeah, it depends on the program. Yeah, it depends on the person.”

That's not desperate. Desperate is, “Oh my god when are you releasing it? I'm dying to get this.”

Sneaky trick #10 : Find the media potential

If you pitch your topic to the top five publications in your niche, can you get accepted by at least three of those places? When you post about this topic on Facebook, on Medium, on LinkedIn, does it generate moderate interest?      

Sneaky trick #11 : Search for the buyers

Can you reach at least 100 potential buyers without spending any money?

Thinking about this will probably scare people, but we all have a circle of influence.

Your target market may not be in your circle of influence, your target market may not be Facebook friends with you. Your target market may not follow you on Twitter. Your target market may not be connected to you on LinkedIn.

But your connections might know someone who could be in your target market.

Sneaky trick #12 : Watch the money                

Remember where we started – people don’t know what they want, they show what they want. And they show what they want by buying what they want, so watch where the money goes.

Observe how people are spending their money and what they’re buying. You might have an absolutely brilliant idea, but if it doesn’t sell, what’s the point?         

So will your idea fly or flop?

Let’s take a look at that score sheet…                                      

If your score is below 20, it will most likely flop.

If your total score is over 32, your idea will fly. You can say with almost 80-90% assurance that your idea will sell, if you’re willing to do all the required marketing, that is.                                                   

And if your score is between 20 and 32, I would ask you whether this is your passion project. If this is a project that makes you jump out of bed every single morning then it's worth a shot. It might fly, it might flop, but it's worth a shot.

Make sure to get your copy of The Fly Or Flop Spreadsheet, a nifty tool that allows you to fill in your results & it will automatically calculate a score that determines whether your idea will fly or flop.